It has become the received wisdom of our time that Russia, that perennial bogeyman of the European imagination, is the party itching for a wider war. One hears the pronouncements from Brussels and the various national capitals with their carefully calibrated notes of alarm, and one is invited to picture Vladimir Putin as a man who spends his evenings polishing bayonets while muttering darkly about the restoration of the Tsars. The truth, as usual, is both simpler and more embarrassing. Russia does not particularly want a war with Europe. Europe, or at any rate those portions of it that still believe themselves to be in charge, rather does. The reason is not strategic genius or historical destiny. It is that the political and ideological model under which large parts of the continent have been labouring has reached the end of its shelf life, and everyone concerned knows it.
There is an old observation, attributed variously and never quite pinned down to a single source, that the problem with socialism is that you can vote your way into it, but you have to shoot your way out of it. The phrase has the rough elegance of a frontier proverb, and it has rarely felt more apt. What we are witnessing is not the confident advance of a coherent system but the final, slightly frantic manoeuvres of people who sense that the experiment has failed and who would prefer almost any catastrophe to the simple admission of error. The rhetoric directed at Russia has taken on a peculiar intensity precisely because the domestic alternatives look so unpromising. Better a distant enemy whose motives can be painted in primary colours than a long, honest look at the books.
The difficulty with the particular strain of narcissism that thrives in modern European politics is that it cannot relinquish power without also relinquishing the flattering self-image that power supplies. To step back would be to concede that the grand project—call it democratic socialism, social democracy, progressive governance, or whatever soft synonym is currently preferred—has not delivered the promised combination of prosperity, cohesion and moral superiority. Multiculturalism, that most sacred and least examined article of the faith, has proved especially divisive, producing not the harmonious tapestry of official literature but a series of parallel societies held together by the thin glue of official optimism and the occasional riot. Rather than adjust course, the stewards of the project prefer to double down. History offers no shortage of precedents for this preference. When the ideology falters, the enemy abroad becomes indispensable.
One notices, of course, that large numbers of ordinary citizens have begun to notice the gap between proclamation and result. They have begun, in that awkward modern phrase, to “wake up.” Yet the conditioning runs deep. Marxism, or the diluted, academic, bureaucratic version of it that has soaked into institutions for decades, has a talent for producing people who resemble drones more than citizens—shells of human beings whose critical faculties have been carefully trained to operate only within the approved narrative. They can recite the latest orthodoxy with impressive fluency and genuine sincerity, but the moment the script is interrupted they look faintly panicked, as if someone has switched off the teleprompter mid-sentence. This is not a conspiracy in the usual sense; it is something more mundane and therefore more durable: the cumulative effect of education, media and professional incentives all pointing in the same direction for a very long time.
The result is a curious inversion. The side that talks most loudly about peace and European values is the one that appears least able to tolerate the possibility that its own model might need revision. Russia, for all its many and obvious faults, has no particular interest in conquering the suburbs of Lyon or the business districts of Frankfurt. It has its own difficulties, and wars of choice are expensive. Europe’s political class, by contrast, finds the prospect of heightened tension useful. It supplies distraction, moral clarity of a crude sort, and a ready explanation for why living standards feel sticky and social trust continues to fray. The psyop, if one may borrow the vernacular, is less a secret plot than the natural consequence of people who cannot afford to be wrong.
One is left, then, with the unedifying spectacle of a civilisation that would rather risk escalation than confront the possibility that its governing assumptions have passed their sell-by date. The leaders do not plot this outcome in smoke-filled rooms so much as drift toward it, sustained by the conviction that any alternative would be unthinkable. The rest of us are invited to accept the invitation to panic. It is an invitation best declined. The shelf life of ideology is finite, even when those who stocked the shelves refuse to check the date.